BBC Preview: Second base a weak position?!

So much for the theory that second base is a weak position.

Through one month of the Baseball Challenge season, three -- count 'em, three -- players who qualify at second base rank in the top 10 in the game in points: Ian Kinsler (112), Marco Scutaro (107) and Aaron Hill (106). Three more rank among the top 25, and if you compare points earned to the player's price tag, then Asdrubal Cabrera belongs in the top 25 when discussing value selections.

As strange as it sounds, this depth at the position minimizes Kinsler's accomplishments; he's No. 2 in the BBC in points scored but isn't close to being the top value at the position (that honor belongs to Aaron Hill). Does that mean it's time to shed Kinsler from your roster? No, not if you rostered him at 5.0, his Opening Day price tag. I'll keep him on hand, but those owners who grabbed him at 5.6, or even 5.9, might want to think twice about it. Frankly, I look at Hill's 4.2 price tag today and call him an outrageous steal.

Through one month of our season -- usually a good time to take a look back at year-to-date accomplishments -- here are the top 25 points scorers currently priced 4.5 or cheaper:

1. Marco Scutaro, 2B, Blue Jays -- 107 points, 4.5 price tag
2. Aaron Hill, 2B, Blue Jays -- 106, 4.2
3. Rickie Weeks, 2B, Brewers -- 79, 4.5
4. Nyjer Morgan, LF, Pirates -- 74, 3.8
5. Jason Kubel, DH, Twins -- 74, 3.8
6. Asdrubal Cabrera, 2B, Indians -- 73, 3.7
7. Bengie Molina, C, Giants -- 73, 4.5
8. Chris Duncan, LF, Cardinals -- 72, 3.9
9. Jason Bartlett, SS, Rays -- 71, 4.0
10. Felipe Lopez, 2B, Diamondbacks -- 71, 4.5
11. Hank Blalock, DH, Rangers -- 70, 4.0
12. Kendry Morales, 1B, Angels -- 69, 3.5
13. Mark Teahen, DH, Royals -- 68, 3.8
14. Jeremy Hermida, LF, Marlins -- 68, 4.0
15. Yadier Molina, C, Cardinals -- 67, 4.4
16. Russell Branyan, 1B, Mariners -- 66, 4.1
17. Howie Kendrick, 2B, Angels -- 66, 4.4
18. Jorge Posada, C, Yankees -- 66, 4.5
19. Chase Headley, LF, Padres -- 65, 4.5
20. Luke Scott, DH, Orioles -- 64, 3.7
21. Dexter Fowler, CF, Rockies -- 64, 3.7
22. Pedro Feliz, 3B, Phillies -- 64, 3.9
23. Emilio Bonifacio, 3B, Marlins -- 64, 4.2
24. Elijah Dukes, RF, Nationals -- 64, 4.3
25. Akinori Iwamura, 2B, Rays -- 63, 4.5

Tristan's top three pitching staff values

1. Chicago Cubs (SF-2, @HOU-2, @MIL-3 -- two-start pitchers Ryan Dempster and Sean Marshall), 6.5 price tag: They're my No. 1 pitching-staff value pick for Week 5, and they didn't even make my "Load up: Pitchers" list in the Forecaster, which demonstrates how different the approach is between traditional Rotisserie options and the BBC. Two things boost the Cubs' stock for our purposes. One, Dempster and Marshall represent safe, reliable two-start pitchers. Dempster, in spite of his 5.40 ERA, is 2-0 with a 3.00 ERA and 1.11 WHIP in his past three starts at Miller Park (including a win there on April 12) and was a practically untouchable 14-3 with a 2.86 ERA in his 20 home starts in 2008, while Marshall has quality starts in five of his past nine regular-season starts and has had a game score beneath 40 only once during that span. Two, the Cubs already took two of three games in both Houston and Milwaukee this season.

2. Kansas City Royals (CHW-2, SEA-2, @LAA-3 -- two-start pitchers Zack Greinke and Kyle Davies), 6.4): A monstrous gamble, as for more than a decade the words "Royals" and "quality pitching" were not at all synonymous. In fact they might not have belonged further apart. Through one month of 2009, though, Kansas City finds itself ranked third in the majors in ERA (3.62), first in WHIP (1.27), third in batting average allowed (.239) and second in OPS allowed (.670). Greinke has been almost unhittable, winning each of his past eight regular-season starts and posting a 1.20 ERA and 0.93 WHIP in his past 11, while Davies has a 6-2 record, 3.52 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in his past 10 regular-season turns. They're the perfect two-start pair for this team.

3. Los Angeles Dodgers (ARI-2, WAS-2, SF-3 -- two-start pitchers Eric Stults and James McDonald), 7.1 price tag: One of the points I made in the Forecaster was that the weakness with these matchups is the Dodgers' two-start pitchers, and how that's a problem in a game like the BBC. But outside of that, this is by far the strongest set of matchups for any team in Week 5. So here's the good with Stults: He has a 3.64 ERA and 1.51 WHIP in 11 career games (nine starts) at home, compared to 6.14 and 1.62 on the road (18 games, nine games started). As for McDonald, not many nice things I can say; he's not even guaranteed to take both turns. If you can live with potentially soft early- and late-week totals, I think you'll be plenty pleased with the Dodgers' mid-week scoring potential. Sunday note: Unsurprisingly, McDonald was bumped from the rotation over the weekend. Jeff Weaver will take his turn on Tuesday, and is no guarantee to even take a second turn.

A bonus No. 4: Minnesota Twins (@DET-2, @BAL-2, SEA-3 -- two-start pitchers Francisco Liriano and Nick Blackburn), 5.5: Any road game these days seems like a big-time risk for the Twins, especially Liriano, who is 2-4 with a 6.80 ERA and 1.72 WHIP in his nine major league road starts since returning from Tommy John surgery. (It's not just a major league thing, either; he had a 4.35 ERA and 1.40 WHIP in his seven minor league road starts.) But it's a gamble I'm willing to take, what with the Twins rattling off two respectable series against the Indians and Rays, including road wins by Blackburn and Kevin Slowey in Cleveland. This is a cheap, talented, young staff that can help keep your cap in check while you look to load up on elite players at other positions.

Smack talk!

Want to talk smack? Feel free: E-mail me.

Don Morgese of Northport, N.Y.: "Listen, I'm doing ashamedly bad so far. That said, your pick of Josh Fields is ridiculous. You should have gone with a cheap DH; you noted Kubel has good matchups, and until Nick Johnson gets hurt, he's a perfectly fine pick in the 3.5ish range. I know you're thinking you'll jump back on David Wright when he shakes out of it, but Wright can get 'right' in a hurry. I tried very hard to get Cano and Manny, but they were just too pricey. If I were in contention, I'd have taken more gambles. As it stands, though, I can't worry about overtaking you right now. So I had to take Braun and Pedroia, both great values at 4.8. I also scooped up Beltran at 5.0. He's flat-out hitting right now. That sort of supports picking Wright. Even if he's in a funk, Beltran/Murphy/Reyes are going to be on base ahead of him, giving him plenty of RBI chances. I'll bet on the career .309 hitter to get back. Good luck this week."

The title of the section is "Smack talk!" and as such, I intend to talk back with smack, and here it is: Through four days of Week 4, Wright has 12 BBC points. Fields has 7. In other words, they both stink. Was spending 1.3 more really worth it? That said, I think you missed my point on Wright: I'll know in advance when his price is about to rise, not because of my ESPN affiliation, but because prices change on one day and one day alone: Monday at around 3 a.m. ET. If Wright hits three homers tonight, for instance, I'll know to claim him before the cutoff (and I most certainly will).

Point taken, though: My team did stink this week (or has through four days anyway).

Daily dips

Monday, May 4 -- Mike Cameron, CF, Brewers (versus Paul Maholm), 5.1 price tag: Though he was 0-for-3 in their meeting on April 28, Cameron is a lifetime .524 hitter (11-for-21) with three home runs against Maholm, including that game. He's also a .395 hitter (17-for-43) with three home runs, 11 RBIs, six stolen bases and five walks in 11 games at Pittsburgh's PNC Park since 2006.

Tuesday, May 5 -- Skip Schumaker, 2B, Cardinals (versus Brett Myers), 3.4: He's 5-for-10 in his career against Myers, including one double and two home runs. He's also a .351 hitter in 11 home games so far this season, and a .309 hitter with 40 RBIs, 58 runs scored and a .764 OPS in 133 home games since 2007.

Wednesday, May 6 -- Jermaine Dye, RF, White Sox (versus Zach Miner), 5.0: He hit a home run in their meeting on April 13 in Detroit, and is a .429 hitter (6-for-14) with three homers in his career against Miner. He's also a .323 hitter with 21 home runs, 68 RBIs and a .964 OPS in 88 home games since the beginning of last season.

Thursday, May 7 -- Mike Cameron, CF, Brewers (versus Micah Owings), 5.1: I'm coming back to Cameron for this one, seeing as he hit home runs in each of his two at-bats versus Owings in their April 15 meeting, and is 4-for-9 (.444 BA) lifetime against the right-hander, including a double and a triple. He also batted .280 (7-for-25) with two doubles and one homer in six games at Cincinnati's Great American Ball Park in 2008.

Friday, May 8 -- Kosuke Fukudome, CF, Cubs (versus Dave Bush), 5.4: Brandon Inge, who was scheduled to battle Cliff Lee on May 3, faces the Indians' ace again Friday, and the matchup statistics haven't changed. I'd endorse Inge again as a result, but for a fresh pick, I'll take Fukudome, who went 2-for-3 with a double and a home run against Bush on April 11. He's also a .343 hitter (12-for-35) with three home runs, nine RBIs and three stolen bases in 10 career games at Milwaukee's Miller Park.

Saturday, May 9 -- Casey Kotchman, 1B, Braves (versus Cole Hamels), 4.1: It's rare that I'd pick a left-handed hitter facing a left-handed pitcher, but here's one such matchup where hitter owns pitcher. Kotchman has hit a home run in each of the three games in his career in which he has faced Hamels, and he's 4-for-9 lifetime versus the Phillies' ace.

Sunday, May 10 -- Derrek Lee, 1B, Cubs (versus Jeff Suppan), 4.4: He's a lifetime .447 hitter (21-for-47) with seven doubles, four home runs and a 1.387 OPS against Suppan, and has a .261 batting average, 12 home runs, 39 RBIs and an .819 OPS in 50 career games at Milwaukee's Miller Park.

Tristan's Week 5 lineup

Total points: 863 (through Thursday).
Percentage: 99.8. Overall rank: 94th.
Ranking in Fantasy Editorial Group: 15th.

C -- Victor Martinez, Indians (@TOR-2, @BOS-2, DET-3), locked at 4.8 price tag, 5.5 market: Still has 20 points on anyone else at his position.
1B -- Miguel Cabrera, Tigers (MIN-2, @CHW-2, @CLE-3), locked at 5.0, 5.4 market: Quickly becoming a candidate to be cut in Week 6.
2B -- Ian Kinsler, Rangers (@SEA-2, @OAK-2, @CHW-3), locked at 5.0, 5.9 market: Again, if you have him locked at 5.0, stay the course.
3B -- Pablo Sandoval, Giants (@CHC-2, @COL-2, @LAD-3), 4.1: It's time to buy; he has 23 BBC points in his past four games and gets to play two games apiece at hitter-friendly ballparks Wrigley Field and Coors Field.
SS -- Derek Jeter, Yankees (BOS-2, TB-2, @BAL-3), 5.0: With Hanley hurt, I'm playing a hunch, as the Yankees host the Red Sox for the first time in their new park.
LF -- Jason Bay, Red Sox (@NYY-2, CLE-2, TB-3), 5.6: I'm playing a hunch, as the Red Sox visit new Yankee Stadium for the … you get the idea.
CF -- Grady Sizemore, Indians (@TOR-2, @BOS-2, DET-3), locked at 5.2, 5.7 market: Just a fan. I think it's a steal of a price.
RF -- Nick Markakis, Orioles (@TB-2, MIN-2, NYY-3), locked at 5.0, 5.8 market: Still tearing it up, and his Orioles face righty starters in five of their six games.
DH -- Billy Butler, Royals (CHW-2, SEA-2, @LAA-3), 3.8: He has 47 BBC points in his past 11 games, and what encourages me most about his development is that he's on pace for 88 walks, which would easily set a new professional best.
Pitching staff -- Cubs (SF-2, @HOU-2, @MIL-3), 6.5

Tristan H. Cockcroft is a fantasy baseball analyst for ESPN.com and a two-time champion of the League of Alternative Baseball Reality (LABR) experts league. You can e-mail him here.